Vermont Long Term Substate Area Occupational Projections

2020 - 2030

Methodology & Technical Notes

Substate area projections are determined by allocating the long term statewide industry projections to the three geographic areas of the state; Burlington NECTA, Southern Balance of State, and Northern Balance of State. The location of most employment covered by Unemployment Insurance can be identified by area. Self-employed workers and employment in certain non-covered occupations are allocated across the areas based on population.

Growth rates for particular occupations vary across areas based on the mix of industries in which they occur and other factors. Employment changes in substate areas are based on industry employment projections for the state as a whole, not on separate industry projections for each area.

Employment projections are estimating the mix of jobs in the future based on trends in the job market in Vermont and on the overall economy. Speculation regarding policy changes, localized economic events such as strikes, or large unexpected events such as hurricanes are not included. Long term projections assume full employment in the projection year and do not take into account business cycles.

Occupations included in projections are necessarily only jobs that already exist in sufficient numbers to be coded and counted. In other words, jobs that do not yet exist or are just emerging cannot be projected. It is partly through collecting new job titles and duties from employers for the data used in projections that new occupations are identified for inclusion.

The results provide a general guide for the direction and relative strength of occupational demand but are not intended to indicate absolute levels of employment in an occupation.

Projections are to be used for relative comparisons for occupations, and to help inform where training for the future workforce should be focused based on trends. Any past projections become outdated when actual employment catches up with them or new projections are released, and are no longer an accurate representation of the workforce.

For more information about the Separations methodology used for calculating job openings, visit:

https://www.bls.gov/emp/documentation/separations.htm

This workforce product was funded by a grant awarded by the U.S. Department of Labor’s Employment and Training Administration. The product was created by the grantee and does not necessarily reflect the official position of the U.S. Department of Labor. The Department of Labor makes no guarantees, warranties, or assurances of any kind, expressed or implied, with respect to such information, including any information on linked sites and including, but not limited to, accuracy of the information or its completeness, timeliness, usefulness, adequacy, or ownership. This product is copyrighted by the institution that created it. Internal use by an organization and/or personal use by an individual for non-commercial purposes is permissible. All other uses require prior authorization of the copyright owner.